Weak Outlook for Tallahassee & Daytona

Economist Sees Job Losses, Soft Real Estate Markets Through 2012

Florida economist Hank Fishkind participated in a statewide teleconference yesterday and shared his outlook for major Florida housing markets through 2012. The news was bad for two Florida cities in particular, Tallahasee and Daytona, but for totally different reasons. The fact that lawmakers are in Tally this week looking for a way to slash $2.3 billion from the budget should have state employees on edge and polishing up their resumes. Fishkind predicts zero employment growth and limited population growth in 2009. Translation: no increased demand for housing. The outlook for Daytona, Volusia and Flagler County is weak based on a forecast drop-off in the in-migration of retirees from the Midwest and the Northeast. Fishkind sees this pattern having a broader impact statewide: "Florida is unlikely to experience expanded migration until the middle of 2010 at best." That he wouldn't clarify "at worst" leaves open the barn door of Florida in-migration speculation. With Florida's annual population growth dipping below 1% in 2008, look for zero or negative growth in 2009.