The Daily Soak - April 30

Housing Starts Down Dramatically Throughout Florida

More good news for those hoping for some equilibrium in Florida's housing supply/demand equation. According to Metrostudy, single-family housing starts posted significant double-digit declines in all major metropolitan regions of Florida: South Florida (-48%), Metro Orlando (-54%), and Tampa Bay (-43%). Despite the statewide pullback, lot inventory and finished vacant inventory remains high in most markets, especially the six-county South Florida region with over 15,000 finished vacant condominium units and over 30,000 condominium units still under construction. So where does Florida housing hope spring eternal? According to Metrostudy, the Top 3 South Florida communities ranked by housing starts are Greystone in Palm Beach County, Islands at Doral in Miami-Dade and Valencia Pointe in Palm Beach.



Miami Condo Foreclosures Forcing Fees on Residents

Marketplace Public Radio takes a closer look at Celebration Point, a Miami Lakes condominium where foreclosures and special assessments are creating financial hardships for the remaining residents. Facing a $250,000 loss, the condo association is tapping an emergency fund to the tune of $20,000 per month. Marketplace notes that Celebration Point is a microcosm of the broader Florida housing market where new luxury condos and apartment-to-condo conversions are coping with this trend that often leaves common areas and amenities in disrepair. A representative of Upside Down Florida sums up the problem: It's just a cascade effect of where, if you keep reducing the number of residents, you're ultimately going to raise the dues for everybody else that remains. (Click here to listen to the audio clip)



Office Depot Earnings Down; Blames Housing; Stock Rallies

Office supply giant Office Depot reported earnings yesterday, and the Florida-based Company partially blamed the weak housing market for quarterly profit that came in below 2007 numbers. While international sales were up, domestic sales were down 7% due in part to the weak economy in states like Florida and California. Sales to small and mid-sized companies in those two states were down 30% in the first quarter; however, 2008 earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations, and there are signs of stability and strengthening. The company reported an improved outlook going forward and Office Depot shares responded jumping 16%. (Chart)

The Daily Soak - April 29

Foreclosure Tours Gaining Momentum in Cape Coral; Lee County

In the second of a two-part series, NPR puts the national spotlight on Southwest Florida' housing bargains and an enterprising Florida real estate agent-cum-tour operator. Marc Joseph is leading foreclosure tours through hard-hit Cape Coral and other areas of Lee County where an estimated three to five years of unsold inventory sits dormant. Not for long if Joseph and other area entrepreneurs have their way with foreclosure tours that are drawing bargain hunters. As NPR notes, many of the homes are being offered at below replacement cost, so the timing is excellent for those who are looking for homes in Southwest Florida. Click here to listen to a 6-minute feature on the current glut in the Lee County housing market.


Why More Boomers Will Look Beyond Florida for Retirement

MSNBC features excerpts from author and broker Barbara Corcoran's new book, Nextville: Amazing Place to Live the Rest of Your Life. In what can only be described as a wake-up call for Florida policymakers at all levels of government, Ms. Corcoran shares the following summary of the Sunshine State where, ironically, both her parents reside. One gets the feeling she won't be following in their footsteps. To me, Florida is as much a symbol as a real, live place. It symbolizes the conventional — a predictable approach to retirement. For so long, it was the place to retire, and its popularity has taken its toll on the state through the years. These days, Florida has too much traffic and not enough water (the drinkable kind, that is). Many areas grew too quickly, with buyers overpaying for real estate. Now take a drive through onetime Florida hot spots and you'll see a FOR SALE sign on too many blocks. People are leaving for a number of reasons, one of them being their concern about the next big storm and the exorbitant cost of home-owners' insurance that protects against hurricane damage. Some older retirees leave because Florida doesn't provide for some basic needs, like easy transportation; the state has actually been losing a growing number of people over seventy-five of late, some of whom are returning to northern states that provide better senior services. Meanwhile, younger boomer retirees tend to steer clear of Florida simply because it's seen as "too old" or — as my parents affectionately call it — "Heaven's waiting room."


St. Joe CEO Peter Rummell Stepping Down; Led Diversification

Florida Trend Magazine reports Peter Rummell will step down this month as CEO of St. Joe, Florida's largest private landowners. Totaling over 700,000 acres, the St. Joe land portfolio is concentrated primarily in the Panhandle and dates back to the 1920s. During Rummell's eleven year tenure, the company made several attempts at diversification into real estate development. St. Joe played a principal role in two major Panhandle projects, WaterColor near Santa Rosa Beach and the new Pensacola-Bay County International Airport which opens in 2010. As the Florida real estate market cooled in 2007, so did the company's residential real estate revenues. When asked about the market in Northwest Florida, incoming St. Joe CEO Britt Greene notes, We’re starting to see a trend of some stabilization in niche areas, in price and resale inventory. Click here for a Q&A with Britt Greene.

The Daily Soak - April 28

Can Florida Spend Its Way Out of the Housing Bath?

The Tallahassee-based research and citizens' watchdog group, Florida Tax Watch, has released an analysis of Florida's economic status quo and proposals for jump-starting the state's sagging economy. Regarding housing, the report notes that Housing prices have toppled by approximately 20 percent and 15 percent, respectively, in the Miami and Tampa regions during the last year and that foreclosures statewide are running at a pace of roughly 30,000 per month in early 2008. Florida Tax Watch proposes a $615 million economic stimulus plan including $225 million in affordable housing incentives to stimulate residential construction. Click here to download the 8-page report.


Worse and Worser: Conference Speakers Highlight Florida's Woes

Noted economists speaking at this month's Spring Construction Forecast Conference sponsored by the National Association of Home Builders offered some hope for a nationwide bottom suggesting that prices would continue to fall throughout this year before stabilizing in 2009. Unfortunately, the outlook for Florida was less optimistic according to one economist who sees Florida housing prices continuing to fall in 2009. The combination of excess inventory, falling prices and tight lending standards are leaving many homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are actually worth. The article refers to this concept as underwater, but readers of this blog know it by another name, bathing, and 8.8 million bathers can't be wrong.


Foreclosurepedia? Real Estate Wiki Adds Distressed Properties Info

California-based Real Estate Wiki has announced the addition of several new features on their website including "foreclosures, pre-foreclosures, short sales, auction and bank owned properties." The site features a foreclosure-oriented FAQ, a glossary of warm and fuzzy foreclosure terms and links to agencies that may be able to provide assistance to homeowners and potential buyers of foreclosed properties. According to the site, in March one in every 538 households in the U.S. received a foreclosure notice, with Nevada (1 in 139 homes) leading the pack, followed by California (1 in 204 homes), Florida (1 in 282 homes) and Arizona (1 in 283 homes).

The Daily Soak - April 27

From Russia with Love...Florida Real Estate Love

Florida, Nevada and California are three of the hottest housing market destinations. No, this is not a typo. Florida, Nevada and California are three of the top 4 markets where Russians look to buy property in the U.S.; the fourth is New York. With the domestic buyer pool shrinking, Florida developers of such projects as Icon Brickell and Trump Hollywood have been making presentations to Moscow's elite. Familiarity with the Florida market for Russians is reflected in the large number of Russian-Americans residing in South Florida. Florida brokers attending a recent event at the Phillipe Starck-designed Bon Restaurant in Moscow pitched Florida condo developments ranging in price from $400,000 to over $4,000,000. The videos projected of Florida's beaches and sunny skies presented a nice contrast to the interior of Bon, described by one reviewer as "a dark shrine to the Moscow excesses of sex, violence and food."


British Tourists Discover Life Beyond Disney in Central Florida

A valuable editorial for any Florida real estate professionals who are targeting buyers in the U.K. and an entertaining commentary for anyone who enjoys cross-country cultural differences. A journalist with England's Birmingham Post spends two weeks in the Orlando area with her family, stays at an International Drive timeshare resort and visits tourist attractions like Aquatica and Kennedy Space Center. Most of the writer's culture shock stems from size issues like our cars: This is the land of BIG cars and even bigger roads. We’d paid to hire a full-sized Dodge Charger, but Dollar upgraded us to a Jeep, which is bigger than any car I have ever driven. It was naturally automatic, with the driver’s accoutrements on the "wrong" side. Despite the shaky start, the author confesses at journey's end, We had to admit, we were beginning to warm to Orlando ourselves.


"Very good people" hurt by Florida mortgage and housing situation

A new survey released by a Coral Gables bank rating firm shows that 25% of the banks in Broward and Palm Beach Counties are dealing with significant increases in overdue loans. Not surprisingly, many of those borrowers took out loans during the go-go housing days from 2000-2005 and started having difficulty making their payments in 2006. The CEO of Grand Bank & Trust in Palm Beach summed up the average borrower profile as not being that of a careless speculator: There are some very good people who are being caught up in this economy. Want to see where your Florida bank ranks in the Bauer Financial survey? Simply visit this link and choose "Florida" from the dropdown menu.

The Daily Soak - April 26

Economist shares good news for Collier County real estate market


Florida economist Hank Fishkind recently spoke at a Naples Area Board of Realtors event and said six words that bottom-seekers have been waiting months to hear: “The markets are not eroding further.” Fishkind was not as optimistic about the Lee and Charlotte County markets where excess inventory issues are a bit more daunting. In summary, Fishkind said that Collier County home prices are back to where they were in 2006 and that the broader economic recovery will be slow considering the county's historic dependence on construction and tourism. Event attendees included representatives from Lely Resort where 160 units sold in the first three months of this year compared to 100 units in all of 2007.


Panhandle Housing Situation Leads to Condo Auction in Gulf Shores

Just down the road from Pensacola in Gulf Shores, AL a local developer is planning to auction 30 condominiums today. 100 of the 170 units in the 20-story Cyrstal Tower were sold from the $400's during 2004 pre-sales. The developer opted to hold on to the remaining 70 thinking prices would continue surging. That didn't work out so well. Prices in the Panhandle area peaked in the first half of 2006 (median price of $450,000) and have continued steadily downward for the past two years to a median price of $300.000. Sales activity in Baldwin County, AL peaked in early 2004 when sales exceeded 500 per month; a good month in 2008 is about 10% of that. No minimum bids are required in today's auction, so we should have a good indication of how far condo prices have dropped around the Panhandle. Check back tomorrow for an update.


Florida Housing Boom Brought Out Worst in Career Criminal

An interesting follow-up to a 2007 article on a notorious New Yorker who worked his way up from the petty ranks of grand theft to the more lucrative world of mortgage lending in Florida. The article describes how a sweetheart named Victor Clavizzao scammed dozens of homebuyers, many elderly and/or paralyzed living on Social Security income. After entering the mortgage business in 2005, Clavizzao first garnered attention after making a series of loans to relatives with the same last name. In something straight out of a Carl Hiaasen novel, Clavizzao's brother Anthony once signed a power of attorney form for two $800,000 condos while serving jail time for cocaine charges.

The Daily Soak - April 25

Positive Indicators in Southwest Florida Housing Market

Lower prices have provided ample incentive for many buyers in Charlotte County to get off the proverbial fence. In March, 268 single-family homes sold in North Port, a 13% increase over the 237 sold in 2007. Average price per square foot also seems to be stabilizing in select areas like Anna Maria Island where average price/sf rose to $404 from $390 in March 2007. Data from the North Port condominium market is not as robust as the single-family segment; however, the relatively flat data (sales down 2%, median price off 4%) also seem to suggest a bottom. Excess inventory is a big problem in Southwest Florida, although some markets like Sarasota are now showing movement in a positive direction. Active listings in the Sarasota MLS rose 26% from 2006 to 2007 but actually fell 3.5% from 2007 to 2008.

Abandoned Houses in South Florida Impacting Neighborhoods

NBC-6 investigates the foreclosure fallout and the growing number of open, vacant and abandoned (OVA) houses in South Florida. The report details the negative impact abandonded houses are having on their surrounding neighborhoods. Mosquito-infested pools, unkept lawns, broken windows and doors are creating eyesores for neighbors, a deterrent for potential buyers and serious hazards for children. Viewers in Miami-Dade are encouraged to contact Team Metro, an organization tasked with cleaning up and sealing off abandoned homes. Bank inspectors and Team Metro members say the OVA phenomenon is impacting both affordable areas like Homestead and Miami Shores and exclusive gated communities like Cocoplum and Gables by the Sea.

AutoNation Reports Weak Earnings; Blames (What Else?) Housing

First it was the financial institutions like PNC Finanacial and Bank of America. Then Starbucks got in on the act. Now AutoNation is jumping on the housing scapegoat bandwagon. Earnings for the Florida-based auto retailer were down 35% in the first quarter of 2008, and the company (Chart) blamed housing market weakness in four states that account for 60% of their new vehicle sales: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. With this latest news, it seems the housing crisis is ascending to the ranks of some of Wall Street's best known scapegoats including El Niño, Y2K and the economic slowdown post-9/11. For some humorous, historical perspective, enjoy this New York Times column from 1998: Dear Shareholder: The Dog Ate Our Earnings.

The Daily Soak - April 24

Condo Associations Struggle to Pay the Bills; Maintenance Suffers

The Miami Herald looks at the problems facing a growing number of South Florida condominium associations facing growing budget shortfalls as the number of foreclosures and unoccupied units keep rising. The article focuses on new condominium developments in South Florida where 50-90% of the owners are not paying their HOA fees. The 90% example, Fountains of Tamarac, is described as an extreme example; however, the 50% number is becoming more commonplace. Anecdotally, I have a friend renting in a downtown Miami condominium which is probably 30% owner-occupied. The elevators, hallways, common facilities and amenities are all in disrepair. The photo was taken from one of the top floors of another new Brickell development with a combination of unsold units and sold/unoccupied units.


Forecast: Where Housing Prices Are The Most Likely to Fall

The Wall Street Journal ran an article that first appeared almost a year ago. At the time, the Journal forecast California as the market most likely to fall. Florida, New York and Massachusetts rounded out the Top 4 in this ranking compiled by National City Corp and Global Insight. While the prediction is a year old, National City maintains a website with more recent valuation data. Not surprisingly, the nationwide picture shows undervalued markets largely in the heartland with moderately overvalued and overvalued markets located in coastal states. According to the map, Broward and Miami-Dade are the most overvalued counties in Florida.


Anxiety Over Rising Condo Fees Leads to Hostage Standoff, Death

A 57 year-old Pompano Beach man was shot and killed yesterday by police officers after he took two women hostage at the condominium complex where he and his mother shared a unit. Patrick Delisanti was apparently distraught over the rising homeowners' fees and special assessments on his unit at the Cypress Bend Condominium. The project suffered significant damage during Hurriance Wilma in 2005 and rising costs and assessments have impacted all residents in recent years. Police opened fire on Mr. Delisanti after he released the hostages and put a gun to his head in an attempted suicide.

The Daily Soak - April 23

New Tampa Housing Numbers Offer Little Encouragement

While the headline is somewhat encouraging, the hard data is more sobering. Median prices and existing home sales in the Tampa Bay area are down 18% and 11% respectively from 2007. The one bit of good news is the fact that the March 20008 median sales price rose $1,600 from February 2008...a mere .80% increase. A Moody's analyst is quoted as saying: "It looks like we're getting closer to a bottom in sales, but prices need to fall farther to move the inventory." Condo sales in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater were down 30% in March versus the same month last year.


South Florida Housing Numbers Paint A Similar Picture

The news out of Miami and Fort Lauderdale was similar to Tampa: sales and median prices were down dramatcially compared to 2007 numbers; however, there was an uptick in March sales over February. Local real estate professionals paint a picture of adjustment where sellers are finally dropping listing prices to a level that is finally coaxing buyers off the sidelines. Existing single-family home sales were up in both Broward (13%) and Miami-Dade (29%) in March 2008 compared to February 2008; median prices were up 10% in Miami-Dade and 1% in Broward over the same time period.


Hold the Venti...Starbucks Joins the Housing Scapegoat Pile-on

In news that is sure to put smiles on the faces of Dunkin' Donuts and McDonald's franchisers serving 99 cent java, Starbucks released quarterly earnings well short of analysts' expectations, and the company blamed the housing meltdown in Florida and Califronia. (The two states account for roughly one-third of the chain's U.S. retail revenue.) The reaction on Wall Street was swift: SBUX shares fell 12% and continued the stock's downward sprial (Chart) over the past year from $32/share to the current price of $16. According to one research report, "cash-crunched consumers are cutting back on coffee purchases."

The Daily Soak - April 22

Florida Existing Home Sales Improve in March 2008

ORLANDO, Fla., April 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Florida Realtors(R) statewidereported slight gains in existing home and condominium sales from Februaryto March 2008, according to the latest housing statistics released by theFlorida Association of Realtors(R) (FAR). A total of 9,142 existing single-family homes changed hands in March, a 10 percent increase over theprevious month when 8,310 homes sold. Existing condo sales statewide rose13.7 percent, with 3,145 units sold in March compared with 2,765 condos in February.

The median price for both housing types increased slightly as wellduring the one-month period. The median price of an existing single-familyhome reached $205,600 in March, compared with $198,900 the previous month.The median price of an existing condo rose to $176,600 in March from$175,600 in February.

In the year-to-year comparison, a total of 9,142 existing homes sold statewide last month while 12,356 homes sold in March 2007 for a decrease of 26 percent, according to FAR. Florida's median sales price for existing homes last month was $205,600; a year ago, it was $242,800 for a 15 percentdecrease. But, looking back to March 2003, the statewide median sales price for single-family homes has increased about 35.5 percent, according to FAR records - at that time, the statewide existing-home median price was$151,700. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The Daily Soak - April 21

Central Florida Housing Starts Moving in Positive Direction

Housing starts in Brevard and Volusia counties in 2008 will be down significantly from 2003, according to data released by the University of Central Florida. While the Orlando Sentinel describes these numbers as "bleak," this is actually good news for anyone hoping to see some semblance of equilibrium in housing supply and demand. And of course we should anticipate double-digit declines this year compared to 2003, the year when most homebuilders were breaking ground on any lot that a.) would hold still and b.) did not already have a house built on it. The housing start figures for the four-county Orlando metro area are equally encouraging: 13,062 units this year compared to 28,075 in 2003.

Signs of Weakness in Florida's Luxury Housing Market

Although hardly "breaking news," Reuters takes a closer look at the housing markets in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach and concludes that the once-resilient luxury home market is starting to weaken. The focus is a recent property auction in Fort Lauderdale where several properties were pulled due to low or no bids. The drama unfolded like this: On one high-rise condo in the Miami enclave of Williams Island, a 3,100 square foot penthouse previously listed at $5.6 million, he opened bidding at $5 million, lowered his price to $3.5 million, $3 million, $2.5 million, and then closed the auction, all within a minute. It's worth noting that some event attendees made a killing, including one guy who snatched up two Venetian Island bayfront homes for a combined $1.5 million. (The two were previously listed in 2005 for a combined $4.75 million.)

BofA Numbers Disappoint; Housing (What Else?) Blamed Again

Well it was PNC Financial last week and this week it's BofA blaming Florida in part for lower-than-expected quarterly earnings. According to Bloomberg, "first-quarter net income declined 77 percent to $1.21 billion from $5.26 billion a year earlier." Revenue and net income fell in several categories including home equity and construction loans. Not helping matters was the fact that 44 percent of the bank's home-equity loans are in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where housing prices by most accounts are moving in a non-northerly direction. BofA CEO Ken Lewis is probably sweating the bank's two worst quarters since 2001 and, judging by the look of construction loan consternation on his face above, Ken needs a hug.

The Daily Soak - April 20

Condo-hotel Purchasers' Angst Rising, Lawsuits Increasing

Two separate class action suits are brewing in Palm Beach County from purchasers of condo-hotel units at the 20-story Resort at Singer Island. According to the Palm Beach Post, these are "owners who claim they were duped into buying units that have become financial drains." While this article raises plenty of questions regarding buyer responsibility, the one irrefutable takeaway is the demise of "condotels," chronicled recently in the Wall Street Journal article, Rooms With a Bubble View. Condo-hotels were all the rage when the Florida housing market and speculation were on fire. Viewed from a slightly longer lens, the Journal says "the condo hotel may go down as the Pets.com of the real-estate bubble." For those still anxious to snatch up a Resort at Singer Island condo-hotel unit, this cavernous, 773-square foot 1/1 is priced at $600,000 or just $776/SF.


British Viewpoint: Miami's Credit Crunch & Mortgage Crisis

The BBC digs beneath the surface of Miami's seemingly stable landscape of high-rises nearing completion and examines the current stagnation and negative spillover effects into the retail and manufacturing sectors. Despite the recent fallout in Miami real estate, the BBC notes that companies like Condo Vultures are well positioned to capitalize on the desperation that many sellers feel in this market. Condo Vultures owner Peter Zalewski describes his firm's m.o. as follows: "We find the most vulnerable of the sellers and we go in there and try and steal the property from them legally and ethically." Looking at the broader macroeconomic situation, respected Miami economist Tony Villamil shared this sobering summary, "I think we will be working this out for the rest of 2008 and the first half of 2009."


Rethinking Rondos: Rental-to-Condo Conversions Fall Flat in Tampa

The conversion of multi-family rental apartment complexes to whole-ownership condos, or "rondos," was all the rage in 2005. Nowhere in the U.S. was the frenzy stronger than in Florida where Tampa Bay, Miami and Orlando led the nation in rondos. The Tampa Bay area alone has witnessed 29,000 rondos in just the last four years. (For a historical perspective, check out this pro-rondo piece from a blogger named "Mr. Real Estate") So far 3,500 units in Tampa Bay have reverted back to apartments thanks in part to state legislation that makes it easier to terminate condominiums and the fact that units are being repurchased at a "fair market value" which is typically thousands of dollars less than what buyers paid two or three years ago. With rondos clearly out of favor, the emergence of condo to rental conversions demands the coining of a catch phrase, so HB.com is proposing: Condental. We need to run it by Mr. Real Estate first, but we think it has juice.

Hot Tub of the Day

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The Daily Soak - April 19

So is the tub half empty or half full? In an attempt to present all relevant viewpoints on the Florida housing situation, we will begin each Daily Soak with the most optimistic stories online and spiral slowly downward to the depths of watery depression. Journalistic integrity demands fair and balanced housing bath coverage for all. We Report. You Bathe.


Better Days Ahead According to New Florida State Research Report

The first chapter of Tough Choices: Update 2008, a public policy report published by Florida State's LeRoy Collins Institute, focuses on state revenues, housing price trends and the aging boomer population. The dramatic double-digit increases in both monies flowing into state coffers and annual home price appreciation during the three-year period from 2003-06 is viewed in sharp contrast to the current three-year cycle (2006-09) we are slogging through. The authors anticipate better days for Florida beginning this year, as the oldest boomers start turning 62 (historically the age when most Americans retire) and lasting through 2020. The authors put the current housing situation in context noting "when the market adjustment runs its course, Florida is going to have a big appreciation in property values — and fresh demand for housing supply in the most desirable and limited locations."


Florida Homes Transformed Into Works of Art

Many Florida homeowners would like nothing more than to forget about their homes. Still others can't get enough of their abodes and are commissioning local artists to put their residences on canvas. Fort Myers Beach artist Natalie Davis, who probably doesn't have a future writing Hallmark cards, describes her clients' motivation, “A home is somebody’s castle and they want it immortalized. A house can get destroyed by hurricane, but if it is in a painting, that castle will always be there.” In that spirit, HB.com commissioned a special series of watercolors of homes around Florida. Click the image above and enjoy.

PNC Bank CEO Disses Florida, Labels State in "Depression"

It is earnings season on Wall Street, and several large banks shared their first quarter results with investors this week. One of the banks, Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial, had a tough first quarter with profits ($377 million) coming in well short of first quarter 2007 ($459 million). Looking for scapegoats during the company's conference call, PNC CEO James Rohr declared, "We are in the worst housing market in the recorded history of the United States." (Were there condo gluts during an unrecorded portion of U.S. history?) Trying to put PNC's numbers in a better light, Rohr continued, "We're just very glad that we're not in Florida and California, Las Vegas, a number of those places that have those depressions going on." Those depressions? Hey James, thanks for verbally catapulting our economic situation from recession to depression. We can only assume your title stands for Chief Exagerration Officer.

The Daily Soak - April 18

Cruise Ships May Not Work as Affordable Housing Solution

A resort developer in Hawaii has been in conversations with a Florida yacht broker regarding leasing two "barely used" cruise ships to address the affordable housing crisis on Oahu. The two ships are owned by the U.S. Maritime Association but--unfortunately for the developer and the new Disney resort he represents--are not available for lease. This is a setback for the Hawaiian island where, according to the article, "hundreds of people still sleep on the beach." If Florida cruise ships are too costly, HB.com would like to offer a Florida-inspired solution to Hawaii's housing crisis: Florida condos! With 61 months of inventory in Miami-Dade, we can certainly lend Hawaii a few dozen empty high-rises along Biscayne Boulevard. Hey, it's a win/win: Oahu gets thousands of empty condos and Miami gets its housing supply back within the stratosphere.

$81.5 Million: Palm Beach Mansion Sets Sales Record

What housing crisis? A 32,000 square foot Palm Beach mansion with 300 feet of Atlantic Ocean frontage just sold for $81.5 million surpassing the old record for Palm Beach of $70 million paid in 2004 for billionaire investor Ron Perelman's former residence. According to the Palm Beach Post, "the deal underscores both the strength of the mansion market and the desirability of (the) home at 1236 S. Ocean Blvd." The sales price of the home was actually $77.5 million plus a mere $4 million in closing costs. The annual property tax bill on the home is over $517,000, and the $81.5 million sales price is roughly the equivalent of 342 single family homes at the median sales price in Florida. And perhaps the most amazing figure for those of us bathing in a sea of falling prices, the mansion sold at full list price. That settles it...the next time we have a housing boom, I'm buying a Palm Beach estate.

Fort Lauderdale Foreclosure Tours Growing in Popularity

Fort Lauderdale agents and potential buyers--or maybe just gawkers and curiosity seekers--are increasingly being seen around town participating in foreclosure tours of residential properties. OK, how can you not be seen when you have a bunch of Tommy Bahama-draped retirees driving around town in a garish zebra-striped stretch Hummer drinking mimosas? Still, the trend is catching on here and in several Florida cities like Naples, Orlando and Tampa. Like foreclosure tours in other parts of the state, the article described the participants as a mix of "working-class people looking for homes, as well as investors seeking potential bargains." Apparently they don't have to look too far. One of the properties featured on the tour is a Palm Beach Gardens home that someone bought for $930,000 in 2006. The current listing price...$499,000.

The Daily Soak - April 17

So is the tub half empty or half full? In an attempt to present all relevant viewpoints on the Florida housing situation, we will begin each Daily Soak with the most optimistic stories online and spiral slowly downward to the depths of watery depression. Journalistic integrity demands fair and balanced housing bath coverage for all. We Report. You Bathe.


Orlando Homebuilders Reporting "Upticks" in New Home Sales

The Orlando Sentinel interviews 3 local homebuilders and 2 of them report good sales activity in the first three months of 2008. One builder cites lower interest rates, increased promotions and, of course, drastic price reductions to approximately 40% below last year's median home sales price. Town houses priced in the mid-$100s are apparently selling well in outlying areas of Orlando.

Housing Crisis in Florida? Global DJs to the Rescue!

An Australian electronic music site reports that the world's number one DJ, Tiesto, is an "enthusiastic long term believer in the US property market." So much so, that Tiesto purchased a Miami home at Aqua on Allison Island two years ago. Fellow DJs Moby and Paul Oakenfold are less optimistic about real estate appreciation in other parts of the U.S. having placed their Manhattan and Hollywood residences on the market within the past year.

Forbes Ranks America's Worst-Selling Housing Markets

Florida teams often dominate the BCS rankings during football season. Now in the off-season, Florida is home to 3 of the Top 4 worst-selling housing markets in the U.S. according to data comiled by Forbes. In this nationwide survey, Forbes looked at "price growth and sales rates in the country's 40 largest metropolitan statistical areas." Tampa pulled in the #4 spot based on double-digit price declines and unsold housing inventory on par with Phoenix, a city with 1.4 million more residents. With a median price of $240,400 and 34,384 unsold homes, Orlando grabbed the #2 spot on the Forbes list. Miami topped the ranking with a median price of $345,900 and an unsold inventory of 81,613 homes.

The Daily Soak - April 16

So is the tub half empty or half full? In an attempt to present all relevant viewpoints on the Florida housing situation, we will begin each Daily Soak with the most optimistic stories online and spiral slowly downward to the depths of watery depression. Journalistic integrity demands fair and balanced housing bath coverage for all. We Report. You Bathe.


Researchers Dismiss Arguments Against Florida Housing Recovery

Virginia Tech Metropolitan Institute researchers, hired by Sarasota County to rewrite that county's development code, predict that the population will grow to 664,000 in Sarasota County by 2040, or double the population count in 2000. The more relevant takeaway for all counties was their dismissal of the dual arguments that a.) Florida has become unattractive to retirees and b.) that its taxes are too high. Citing the article, "similar arguments were made in the 1980s and the early 1990s about Florida, preceding housing booms in the state." OK, maybe "boom" is a stretch and we know taxes are still too high, but it's refreshing to see some Ph.D.'s weighing in with a some rationale for recovery.


Queue Up for Savings: Absolute Auctions and British Bidders

OK, so maybe this isn't an unbiased source. And maybe when you do the math (27 registered bidders, 3 actual bidders, 2 winners), there isn't overwhelming evidence that absolute auctions are the hottest thing since sliced bread. And maybe we should mention that the properties sold were snatched up at a 50% discount to the original listing price. But here is the good news: two homes were sold in Collier County to British buyers in January. And based on the strength of that performance, 25 additional townhouses will be auctioned on Saturday, April 19. The article repeats the UCF prediction that "Florida's economy should hit its low point (between January and March 2008) and then begin a long, steady climb upward." So drop your prices...er...rejoice Southwest Florida...the British are coming.


Stagflation Anxiety at the Costco Cafeteria

Reuters serves up a real wrist-slasher titled Sour economy casts pall over once sunny Florida. A gloomy macroeconomic picture is painted, and a couple of economists are cited. But the real hard-hitting anecdotal evidence comes from patrons at the local Costco Cafeteria. If there is a less representative barometer of the state of the state, I can't think of one. (In interest of fair disclosure: a.) I'm a Sam's Club member and b.) I have never "dined" at my local Sam's Club, although that 64-oz. soft serve and fruit combo is quite tempting at $1.29.) The writer then ratchets up the good vibrations by dropping in the phrases "fears of a new Great Depression" and "Florida...a state that people are leaving in droves." Really? I was on I-95 yesterday sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic southbound from West Palm to Miami. Is there a new Georgia on-ramp down in Islamorada I don't know about? A photograph of Miami on a cloudy day adds undeniable proof to the writer's claim about a pall over "once sunny Florida."

The Daily Soak - April 15

Here comes the joker...
we all must laugh...
'cause we're all in this together,
and we love to take a bath. - Phish


The Housing Bubble. We have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that it's officially over. The bad news is that when it burst, the cumulative moisture of denial that was building for years by millions of buyers, builders, speculators, real estate agents, commercial lenders, mortgage brokers and policymakers was sent cascading from the skies above to the ground below. The resulting ocean of anxiety is an impressive body of water that stretches from Miami to Michigan, Boston to Baltimore, and Phoenix to Fort Lauderdale. In many ways, we as Americans, have never been so united. We share anxiety, regret, buyer's remorse, pending rate adjustments, feelings of disillusionment, ("They said I could flip this thing for $2 million!"), feelings of abandonment ("Hey, where did all the buyers go?") and trillions in mortgage debt. In short, we are all taking a bath. A Housing Bath.

Looking on the bright side (the central mission of this blog and website), who doesn't enjoy a nice bath? Sure we are more of a shower-centric culture today, but we all have fond memories of baths at some point in our collective pasts. (childhood, physical therapy, bachelorette parties...we digress) The ancient Romans elevated the bath to an art form. Community baths in Rome were the epicenter of daily life and one of history's earliest examples of a true social network. It is in that same spirit of optimism that we built HousingBath.com: A Social Network for Lonely Houses.

Technically, the site is for us, the homeowners, but the emphasis of each member page is your actual home. The mission of the site is threefold: empowerment, therapy and networking. First of all, HousingBath seeks to empower would-be buyers and sellers with relevant news and information regarding the Florida housing status quo. The second goal of the site is to provide an outlet for the stress and anxiety many of us feel in this environment of rising inventory and falling prices. Networking is the third goal of the site. Just like the ancient Romans, you are encouraged to get to know your fellow bathers. Strange? Maybe. Cathartic? Definitely!

In closing, let us just say welcome to HousingBath.com.

Now Get Out of the Tub!