The Daily Soak - November 12

Prediction: The Florida Housing Market Will Get Better or Worse

Members of the South Florida Developers and Builders Alliance met in Palm Beach yesterday to listen to real estate analyst Michael Cannon's assessment for the region, the state and the country in general. Those who attended hoping for some definitive answers probably walked away disappointed. Cannon should consider running for public office or try out for the Marlins, because his base covering capabilities are phenomenal, "We'll probably see this period to further expansion - I'm not going to say 'boom' again - take place probably in the next 36 to 48 months. That's the optimistic side," Cannon said. "The pessimistic side? It could take 10 years. I don't believe it will take 10 years, because this country is too antsy to do that." Antsy? How exactly would "antsiness" be a catalyst for a housing recovery?


Bathtime: Several Florida Zip Codes Over 50% Underwater

A new national survey of zip codes with homeowners in negative equity situations paints a rather wet scenario for several Florida metros. On a statewide basis, Nevada leads the nation with 48% of homeowners upside down followed closely by Michigan, Florida and Arizona. According to the HeraldTribune, "Four states alone, including Florida, accounted for the Top 20 ZIP codes. Besides North Port, four of the Florida ZIP codes on the list were in nearby Lee County, home to one of the worst foreclosure flashpoints, Fort Myers-Cape Coral. In Lee County's 33976 ZIP code, nearly 77% of mortgages were underwater." A senior economist at the company that conducted the survey, First American, sees Florida home prices continuing to decline.

Central Florida Home Sales Up, Median Prices Plummet

That's the news from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. "Sales of existing homes in Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties reached 1,545 in October, a 15% increase above the 1,343 sold in October 2007." Sales in both Orange and Lake Counties posted modest, double-digit gains, while Osceola sales were up a dramatic 47%. Median prices in the region were down 24% compared to last year, including Orlando where the median home sales price fell from $235,000 last October to $178,000 this year. Some analysts see the 72% increase in pending sales over last year as cause for optimism. Despite the falling prices, rising interest rates in the region are pushing the home affordability index in a negative direction.